China's North Korea policy

Comments I made regarding China's North Korea policy were published today in PacNet by the Pacific Forum-Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

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In PacNet #32, Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman make a detailed case for how China's current approach toward North Korea actually contradicts many Chinese national interests.  Their argument can be supplemented by four additional concerns for China and its now indispensable role in international politics.

Cossa and Glosserman argue that Beijing's policies on North Korea undermine the UN Security Council.  Those same policies undermine the nuclear non-proliferation regime. China's shielding and aiding of North Korea has negative interaction effects concerning Iran and the Middle East, Pakistan-India, the monitoring role of the IAEA, and the inclusiveness of important enforcement efforts such as PSI.

Cossa and Glosserman point out that North Korean provocations strengthen U.S. alliance cooperation and relevance in the region.  In addition, North Korea is motivating specific military capabilities over which analysts in Beijing express concern: South Korean missiles with longer ranges and better accuracy, Japanese reconnaissance satellites, and U.S. missile defenses.

Thirdly, North Korea often reneges on agreements and resolutely takes more from China than it gives.  Thus, business with Pyongyang is high risk for Chinese companies and a financial burden on Beijing.  So while some observers accuse China of "economic imperialism," its policies toward North Korea may actually incur greater costs than the financial benefits involved.

Finally, in addition to damaging China's image in South Korea and Japan and its international reputation as an emerging "responsible stakeholder," China's policies on North Korea are setting a bad precedent for relations with regional neighbors associated with ethnic minority groups inside China. The way that Beijing deals with North Korean refugees and related rights groups does not live up to international norms or China’s own principles.  Instead, those policies are increasing fear, resentment and cross-border organization among ethnic Koreans.  Given the number of ethnic minority groups in China, and their complicated relationships with neighboring countries, this is not a good formula for social stability.

China has accomplished so much in recent decades, economically, diplomatically, and in terms of improving the quality of life of the Chinese people.  These accomplishments have brought China ever closer to South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.  China's national interests -- as well as international support for China's growing global role -- would be better served if Beijing worked closer with its forward-looking partners rather than with its anachronistic Cold War ally.